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光伏制作:看好上中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋
阅读: 宣布日期:2021-09-22

2022世界杯买球入口,世界杯买球推荐,正规买球app十佳排行,世界杯网站上买球,世界杯比赛买球,世界杯竞猜网,世界杯在线买球,世界杯在线投注,世界杯买球盘口,世界杯开户网址多少,世界杯外围买球app软件,世界杯官方买球,世界杯体育开户,2022世界杯买球平台,世界杯买球app下载,买球世界杯平台网址,卡塔尔世界杯买球网站,世界杯买球在哪里买:中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向总结

光伏制作:咱们看好下流跌价放缓将动员中下流红利才能规复和完工率上升,倡议主动计划光伏板块的拐点。供给的开释和本钱的降落,或让2022年迎来光伏新的一年。

新动力经营:受害于客岁抢装用电的延续改良,2021年新动力经营商将遍及迎来事迹增添。进入平价时期,新动力生长范围广、持久增添潜力。收益方面,咱们存眷的是,面临扶植使命的压力,经营商不自觉公然装备投标中国动力投资趋向,而是对峙保障投资收益的不变性和可延续性,在工程扶植中取得好过预期的投资收益。制作价钱协作的案例。另外中国动力投资趋向,6月尾碳买卖市场的启动可以或许会带来额定的益处。

中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向风电制作:从短时候须要来看,2021年将完成40GW以上装机容量可见度很高,龙头企业定单满满。本钱方面,下流原材料价钱下跌对零部件的红利才能构成压力,但上半年和下半年边沿趋向有所改良。持久来看,咱们觉得在大型机组加快生长的趋向下,无望重塑风电制作行业款式,掌握这一趋向的企业无望取得抢先位置。

传统电力:1)水电、核电花费空间大幅晋升,新名目审批扶植步调加快; 2)电价压力减缓,市场电价下跌; 3)火电发电志愿削弱,加快新动力安排对冲碳买卖压力。

环保:“十四五”计划明白净化管理将加倍深切,绿色转型将动员绿色低碳手艺和财产疾速生长;一家才能出众的专业环保企业。

中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向危险

光伏、风电制作下流原材料价钱居高不下;新动力用电承压。

笔墨

中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向咱们的偏好:光伏制作>新动力经营>风电制作>传统电力=环保

光伏制作:价钱回落,须要上升,存眷逆变器、薄膜、组件

下流价钱拐点或为须要旌旗灯号,利好政策提振2022年行业预期

中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向1-5月行业增速低于预期,下流跌价按捺下流完工率延续走弱

1-5月国际/海内组件出货量较2019年同期增添24%/27%,略低于预期。本年1-5月光伏组件出口量36.7GW,较2019年同期增添27%;国际光伏装机量9.9GW,较2019年同期增添24%。斟酌到本年硅料供给可以或许保障170GW的须要,表示本年的装机量2019年(109GW)可以或许完成56%的增添,是1-5月现实出货量增速的两倍。

图:1-5月光伏组件月度出口及同比环境

光伏制作:看好上中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向游跌价趋缓倡议主动计划光伏板块拐点

材料来历:Solarzoom、中金公司研讨部

图:1-5月国际光伏装机量及同比环境

光伏制作:看好上中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向游跌价趋缓倡议主动计划光伏板块拐点

材料来历:CEC、中金公司研讨部

导电硅材料的价钱下跌在每一个关头都有所差别。本年以来,供需趋紧动员硅料价钱下跌153%,折合0.4元/瓦。中下流关头硅料跌价传导幅度差别。此中,硅片增添50%,折合0.26元/瓦;电池晋升15%,折合0.14元/瓦;组件下跌8%,折合0.13元/瓦(组件板块额定蒙受玻璃贬价vs出货跌价+汇率贬值对本钱的负面影响,算计0.08元/瓦特)。

下流本钱转移难度加大,电池及零部件完工率延续下滑,后续预期仍不开阔爽朗。 1月、3月、4月、5月组件完工率别离为84%/75%/66%/64%(不计2月春节影响),电芯90%/80% /72%/67%,别离。后续预期鉴于7月仍不开阔爽朗,咱们将期待高低流价钱的边沿变更。

图表:原材料价钱下跌的传导历程(2021年1月至2021年6月)

光伏制作:看好上中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向游跌价趋缓倡议主动计划光伏板块拐点

材料来历:Solarzoom、中金公司研讨部

图表:3月以来,零部件及电池厂商完工率加快下滑

光伏制作:看好上中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向游跌价趋缓倡议主动计划光伏板块拐点

材料来历:PVInfolink、中金公司研讨部

须要压力慢慢传导至下流,看好下流跌价拐点,将动员板材行情启动

颠末四分之一的博弈,咱们觉得行业蒙受跌价的才能根基取得证实。咱们觉得,颠末一个季度的价钱博弈,行业中下流对跌价须要的负反应根基构成自下而上:终端电站全投资报答率根基不低于6%,元器件和电池的价钱已到达了6%。 1.8元/瓦后,1.1元/瓦以上,传导难度增添,拉货力度敏捷降落。散布式市场根基接管1.8元/瓦的组件,而空中电站仍然在1.75元/瓦摆布协作。

高库存 + 低扶植或对下流须要的负面反应。据PVInsight统计,1Q2全数光伏行业库存程度1、2Q21延续上升,停止5月尾较客岁底增添41GW(此中,电池模组26.1GW,硅片和硅材料14.6GW)。咱们判定库存已到达高位,连系完工率不较着改良的环境,咱们觉得下流须要可以或许会在一段时候内慢慢感触感染到下流的负面反应。

图表:财产链库存(停止2021年5月末)

光伏制作:看好上中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向游跌价趋缓倡议主动计划光伏板块拐点

材料来历:PVInsight、中金公司研讨部;

下流价钱企稳的主动旌旗灯号正在闪现。看好财产链博弈靠近序幕,动员下半年完工率上升。

硅料价钱涨幅放缓:6月多晶硅周均价钱涨幅较4-5月收窄。局部多晶硅定单的议价形式由周议价转为月议价,为硅料跌价构成缓冲。 6月23日,硅料下跌趋向本年以来初次企稳。停止6月26日,国际单晶复喂致密料成交均价不变在217、213元/kg。

硅片完工率有所下调:硅片完工率4、5月份也呈现了向下调剂的迹象,由3月份的91%下调至4/5月份的85%/83%。 6月24日,隆基股分硅片官网报价环比持平,证实下流已根基证实硅片价钱蒙受极限。

图:6月以来,硅料跌价放缓

光伏制作:看好上中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向游跌价趋缓倡议主动计划光伏板块拐点

材料来历:Solarzoom、中金公司研讨部

图表:4月以来,硅片厂商完工率也有所下调

光伏制作:看好上中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向游跌价趋缓倡议主动计划光伏板块拐点

材料来历:PVInfolink、中金公司研讨部

2022年将是光伏大年:新硅材料供给开释+名目电价晋升预期

从来岁一季度起头,全行业硅材料新增供给将慢慢开释,财产链利润分派无望慢慢回归均衡。咱们估量来岁全行业供给才能将增至240GW,硅材料供需款式将走出严峻欠缺状况,开释财产链须要增添潜力。

新增产能集合在电价低的地域,供给增添后无望开释光伏降本空间。按照公司预期,硅材料行业新增产能首要集合在电价不高于0.3元/kWh的低电价地域。电费本钱占硅材料出产本钱的40%,估量来岁末后全行业本钱曲线可以或许下移,为光伏降本腾出空间,安慰须要上升。

集合:政策上调了2022年名目预期电价,看好来岁名目量将增添。 6月11日,国度发改委《对于2021年新动力上彀电价政策有关事变的告诉》明白,2021年新增名目按燃煤发电标杆上彀电价,新增2022年名目仍可按燃煤电标价上彀。

散布式:看好组件价钱回归后,来岁散布式装机将延续高位增添,散布式全县鞭策试点政策,给出渗入率量化方针屋顶光伏。 6月20日,国度动力综合司正式印发《对于报送全县(市、区)屋顶散布式光伏生长试点的告诉》,拟展开鞭策屋顶散布式光伏生长试点使命全县光伏发电。

咱们觉得散布式光伏在碳中和历程中的首要性慢慢被承认,咱们看好央企与民营企业协作完成散布式光伏市场的增添。 “十四五”电力央企光伏装机方针大志勃勃,配电是完成方针的关头。咱们觉得,央企有资金优势,民营企业可以或许供给本地渠道和专业、靠得住、一体化的光伏产物。二者在制作、开辟和经营上的协作协作无望鞭策散布式光伏生长。

辅料抢先受害“须要”,优先设置装备摆设逆变器、薄膜、元器件

看好2021年环球光伏须要到达150~160GW

斟酌到财产链中下流出产的高度矫捷性,咱们觉得年财产链产量由硅材料供给决议,估量到达170GW。但斟酌到终端组件出产、托付和装置的时候差,标称装机容量可以或许会略低,在150-160GW。

从季度来看,二、第三季度须要可以或许仍然疲软。跟着下流价钱回归感性,和局部国际可承担名目须要并网,四时度须要或将呈现较着上升。咱们估量,到年末国际并网装机容量数据可以或许坚持在60GW以上。若是组件价钱太高,局部组件现实出货可以或许会推延到来岁一季度,但这不会转变光伏微弱的潜伏须要。

在须要回暖的背景下,倡议环绕三大主线计划2H21光伏市场

主线1:散布式光伏须要兴旺,头部逆变器和经营公司看好。国度发改委近期政策同一了本年15GW+户装机范围的请求,堆​​加工停业估量5GW+。咱们看好国际散布式装机容量将到达20GW+。瞻望来岁,咱们估量中间和国有企业将大范围进入市场。 2022年财产链价钱调剂后,散布式分销无望疾速增添。

主线2:供需杰出的细分板块龙头无望充实受害于须要增添。 1)片子:咱们看好下流扩产将减缓原材料本钱和毛利率压力,并充实受害于下半年下流完工率上升和须要增添。 2)逆变器:逆变器在光伏系统中占比较低,原材料芯片跌价根基可以或许向下流传导。龙头企业芯片供给保障才能更强,份额无望晋升。

主线3:后期受两头挤压最为严峻的零部件板块,今朝红利无望触底反弹。倡议存眷组件局部的预期不佳。若下流跌价呈现和缓迹象,咱们觉得无望动员下流财产链完工率和红利才能呈现拐点。来岁一季度后,跟着硅料价钱的回归,咱们估量财产链的利润分派无望慢慢从下流转向下流。此中,组件价钱在海内具备必然的期货属性。咱们看好组件板块的毛利率将受害于硅材料的贬价。按期分成。

新动力经营:平价后持久增添,收益不变可延续

增添装机容量并改良操纵小时数,以完成 2021 年的高机能增添

2020年新动力装机容量将疾速增添,局部并网容量将在1H21完成贸易化。 2020年天下新增风电和光伏装机7167万千瓦和4820万千瓦,累计运转容量别离到达2.8亿千瓦和2.5亿千瓦,一年-同比增添34.6%,24.1%。本年前5个月新增风电和光伏装机779万千瓦和991万千瓦,累计装机增添34.4%和24.7 % 同比。

颠末客岁的大范围装置,风电和光伏仍具备杰出的接收才能。风电方面,本年1-5月弃风率延续改良,风机操纵小时数同比增添10%至1053小时。光伏方面,受日照较弱等客观身分影响,操纵小时数较客岁同期略有降落1.7%至541小时,但1Q21弃光率降落0.@ >75ppt至2.比上年5%,光伏接收才能有所晋升。

图:2021年1-4月各省风电操纵小时同比增速

光伏制作:看好上中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向游跌价趋缓倡议主动计划光伏板块拐点

材料来历:CEC、中金公司研讨部

图:2021年1-4月各省光伏操纵小时同比增速

光伏制作:看好上中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向游跌价趋缓倡议主动计划光伏板块拐点

材料来历:CEC、中金公司研讨部

在扶植使命压力下,电力公司不自觉停止装备投标,苦守报答底线请求

上半年,下流硅料欠缺推高下流组件价钱,光伏名目难以知足投资报答请求。大型电力企业放缓装备集合投标。年头以来,下流硅料价钱较年头下跌150%以上,元器件价钱涨至1.8元/瓦,难觉得电站投资报答率到达经营商报答率底线(本钱报答率7%-9%),装备投标步调放缓,完工率低。咱们觉得,电力公司仍是对名目报答程度有必然的存眷。

风机价钱延续下跌,平价名目报答好过预期,将来须要延续兴旺。跟着大型机组的鞭策和零部件价钱的大幅降落,2021年5月风力发机电组的均匀投标价钱已到达2500元/kW摆布,较2020年价钱降落35%。咱们估量风电名目初期投资每削减100元/kW,电站股本报答率将增添约0.5pct。在近期风电价钱下,风电名目报答率较好,电力企业可以或许优先扶植风电名目并知足装机方针,将来报答无望晋升。

图表:2020 年头至今风力涡轮机价钱趋向

光伏制作:看好上中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向游跌价趋缓倡议主动计划光伏板块拐点

材料来历:风电投标网、中金公司研讨部

图:2021年国际光伏组件集合推销价钱走势

光伏制作:看好上中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向游跌价趋缓倡议主动计划光伏板块拐点

材料来历:光伏、中金公司研讨部

6月尾启动碳买卖市场,新动力经营商无望取得额定收益

天下碳市场将于6月尾前起头网上买卖,已备案的名目或将抢先受害。本年5月,生态环境部属发碳排放权挂号、买卖、结算等相干文件,天下碳买卖市场启动进入倒计时阶段。今朝,CCER已注册860多个名目,估量年减排量约为1.8亿吨CO2当量。在注册名目中,风电占比最高,约为34%,光伏占比约为7%。咱们看好新动力经营商操纵碳排放权市场化订价机制,无望进一步晋升红利才能,增添现金流。

CCER短时候供需严重,重启认证无望鞭策CCER价钱发明。咱们估量2021年CCER的年须要量约为2亿吨。但因为2017年国度发改委停息新名目CCER请求和减排中国动力投资趋向,在库挂号名目总量无限,仅为CCER整年须要量的一半。咱们估量,CCER 供需短时候或将坚持严重,持久无望经由过程重启名目认证,将更多绿色减排名目归入碳买卖市场系统,增进发明CCER价钱,成为新动力经营商新的支出来历。

图表:中国的温室气体志愿减排 --- 按种别汇总,记实名目的年减排量预算

光伏制作:看好上中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向游跌价趋缓倡议主动计划光伏板块拐点

材料来历:中国志愿减排买卖信息网、中金公司研讨部

风电制作:须要兴旺中国动力投资趋向,本钱压力利润率无望改良

竞价回暖,2021年行业新增添无望坚持高位

2020年的抢装会给新增装机数据带来一些“歪曲”。 (1)并网数据量大可以或许是因为对本年未归入并网统计的个体名目集合确认,仅局部并网名目2020年末全数完成,满负荷计较;(2)若是电扇出货量数据偏大,可以或许是零件投产较早,出货集合在2020年。

估量2021年新增装机仍将坚持较高程度。近期行业投标量较2020年的抢装期起头上升。4Q20-1Q21行业总投标量已到达28GW以上(根基为陆上名目),加上此前投标的海上10GW以上名目2021年将抢装风电 初期的陆上名目已可以或许保障2021年大局部新增范围。咱们估量2021年国际新增并网容量无望到达40GW以上。

图表:中国风电行业投标量

光伏制作:看好上中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向游跌价趋缓倡议主动计划光伏板块拐点

材料来历:中国风能协会、金风科技官网、中金公司研讨部

图表:中国新增风电装机、并网及展望(2011-2021)

光伏制作:看好上中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向游跌价趋缓倡议主动计划光伏板块拐点

材料来历:中国风能协会、国度动力局、中金公司研讨部

风电范围化趋向较着,陆上名目公道收益率鞭策须要延续增添

抢装后,风机中标价钱有较着降落趋向。电扇价钱的降落首要是因为大功率机型的推出和零部件本钱的同比降落。咱们阐发了近期投标价钱降落的首要缘由:1)大型风机致使风机单元功率分量削减,节流了推销零部件的本钱;新车型的产能将节流运输本钱; 3)陆优势电抢装后,零部件推销本钱将有必然降落。

图表:风力涡轮机的月度公然投标价钱

光伏制作:看好上中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向游跌价趋缓倡议主动计划光伏板块拐点

材料来历:金风科技官网、中金公司研讨部

图表:4M21新风电名目价钱散布

光伏制作:看好上中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向游跌价趋缓倡议主动计划光伏板块拐点

材料来历:风电投标网、中金公司研讨部

注重:名目统计数据可以或许不完全。与现实环境略有误差

大型机组延续降落每千瓦时风电的本钱。咱们觉得,在未几的将来,因为机组的大型化,每千瓦时的电费本钱已光鲜较着降落。陆优势电在三北风资本优良但电价低的地域和局部电价高但资本均匀的地域表现出公道的报答率。估量风电装机须要将延续兴旺。

图表:陆优势电名目在差别扶植本钱下的IRR计较对照(无补贴)

光伏制作:看好上中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向游跌价趋缓倡议主动计划光伏板块拐点

材料来历:发改委、水电水资本计划设想总院、中金公司研讨部

原材料跌价或将告一段落,零部件本钱压力无望慢慢改良

与风电相干的下流大批商品价钱下跌可以或许行将竣事。咱们觉得下半年铁制品价钱或将迟缓回落,零部件本钱压力无望改良。

图表:锻造生铁价钱走势

光伏制作:看好上中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向游跌价趋缓倡议主动计划光伏板块拐点

材料来历:Wind资讯、中金公司研讨部

图表:通俗中板价钱走势

光伏制作:看好上中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向游跌价趋缓倡议主动计划光伏板块拐点

材料来历:Wind资讯、中金公司研讨部

保举受害于大型机组趋向的抢先零部件和零件企业

咱们倡议存眷那些经由过程进步前辈的产能扩大取得市场份额的公司。咱们觉得,将来几年,零件关头仍应存眷厂商新机型研发程度、与下流零部件供给商的协作才能和延续降落本钱的趋向,倡议存眷到零件关头的龙头企业。

传统电力:水电、核电抢先受害,存眷火电股转型机遇

严酷的电源和能耗节制,传统电源的多重变更

煤价和动力耗损高,火电供给受限,水电、核电花费空间大增

电力行业正处于夏日岑岭期,用电量增添,火电供给无限。经济增添和低温气候配合致使夏日电力须要兴旺。从今朝对本年夏日局部省分电力供需环境的展望来看,良多处所可以或许会呈现缺电环境。但受煤炭供给严重和价钱高企的影响,火电每度电利润菲薄单薄乃至吃亏。受能耗方针束缚,火电企业发电才能和发电志愿均无限。虽然国度发改委等有关局部出台了保煤稳供办法中国动力投资趋向,但7月份,建党100周年准备使命提速,煤矿可以或许进入宁静大查抄,这将影响供给开释,煤价回落另有待察看。

水电、核电替换须要较着,装机容量扶植将较着加快。在这类环境下,咱们觉得水电和核机电组作为非化石动力将起首受害,花费空间将较着改良。无望完成满负荷产出,进一步优化名目报答程度。在名目扶植方面,咱们对核电审批持悲观主动的立场。作为洁净基荷动力,加快新名目审批。咱们看好2021年获批单元数可以或许到达8个,“十四五”无望延续;他夸大,雅鲁藏布江下流水电开辟名目将尽快提上日程。本年还将有几座在建水电站投入运转。咱们估量中游大型机组的加快投产将进步水力发电的进献率。

供电急急推高全体成交价位

各地市场化电价表现主动。江苏、山东、广东等地电价均下跌。现货方面,5月份广东地域日均成交价钱延续下跌。

供需情势在企业端取得了清楚的反应。 1-5月,华能水电全省用电量每千瓦时增添0.012元,咱们估量将来三年电价将延续下跌。另外,咱们估量“十四五”“西电东送”局部的电价程度也无望高于上一个5年周期。

图表:江苏拍卖成交价

光伏制作:看好上中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向游跌价趋缓倡议主动计划光伏板块拐点

材料来历:电力买卖中间、中金公司研讨部

图表:山东拍卖成交价

光伏制作:看好上中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向游跌价趋缓倡议主动计划光伏板块拐点

材料来历:电力买卖中间、中金公司研讨部

图表:广东拍卖价差

光伏制作:看好上中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向游跌价趋缓倡议主动计划光伏板块拐点

材料来历:电力买卖中间、中金公司研讨部

注:2020年8月数据为-130元/MWh

图表:云南拍卖成交价

光伏制作:看好上中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向游跌价趋缓倡议主动计划光伏板块拐点

材料来历:电力买卖中间、中金公司研讨部

传统电源加快安排新动力,微弱的现金流成为其转型的首要撑持点

适应我国电力规划调剂,传统电源加快新动力计划,重塑企业生长。在碳中和方针下,火电革新使命艰难。整体方针是,到“十四五”期末,新动力装机占比到达50%以上,五年内新增产能20-40GW。 Hydropower and nuclear power companies take the initiative to expand their business. Among them, Yangtze Power aims to plan 15GW of new energy installations in the lower reaches of the Jinsha River during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. Energy base, supporting 25GW of new energy resources.

Different from new energy operation subsidy projects, the recovery of electricity bills for fire, water and nuclear power is healthy and brings stable cash flow. In 2020, the net cash flow from operating activities of traditional power companies will range from RMB 14.6 billion to RMB 42.1 billion, injecting continuous and stable cash flow into the company. However, with the stagnation of thermal power project construction, the nearing end of large-scale hydropower development and the slowdown in nuclear power construction, the free cash flow of traditional power companies has gradually improved, and the asset-liability ratio has gradually decreased, opening a transformation cycle for the "14th Five-Year Plan" and accelerating the deployment of new energy operations. Funding basis is provided.

Graph: Operating cash flow of traditional power companies in 2020

光伏制作:看好上中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向游跌价趋缓倡议主动计划光伏板块拐点

Source: Wind Information, CICC Research

Graph: Weighted average asset-liability ratio of major power companies

光伏制作:看好上中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向游跌价趋缓倡议主动计划光伏板块拐点

Source: Wind Information, CICC Research

Environmental protection: the policy is expected to continue to be strict, and the importance of green and low carbon is highlighted

The 14th Five-Year Plan clarifies that pollution control will be more in-depth, and the demand for ecological and environmental protection is expected to continue

In the 14th Five-Year Plan, ecological and environmental protection management is expected to continue to promote, and the demand will further increase. In November 2020, the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-term Goals for 2035" (referred to as the "Proposal"), plans to accelerate the promotion from 1) Green and low-carbon development; 2)continuously improve environmental quality; 3)enhance the quality and stability of ecosystems; 0.0@>promote green development in terms of comprehensively improving resource utilization efficiency. The "Recommendation" clarifies that the environmental protection governance policy will continue to be strict in the future, and the current shortcomings in environmental protection governance are still obvious. We believe that the country will further promote the governance of air, sewage, soil, and hazardous waste in the future; at the same time, the "Recommendation" plans to establish the value of ecological products. To realize the mechanism, promote garbage classification, and speed up the construction of a recycling system for waste materials, we are optimistic that the demand for related industrial chains will increase in the future.

The 14th Five-Year Plan clarifies that the trend of ecological and environmental protection governance will not change, and pollution control will be more in-depth in the future. In the 14th Five-Year Plan, the requirements for ecological and environmental protection construction are still strict. Compared with the "13th Five-Year Plan", we believe that:

Emphasis on policy continuity: It is clear that environmental governance has a long way to go. In the 13th Five-Year Plan, the total amount of pollutant emissions will be greatly reduced, and the overall improvement of ecological environment quality will require further reduction of pollution emissions and continuous improvement of environmental quality;

More in-depth environmental protection: During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the direction of pollution prevention and control will remain unchanged, and the intensity will not be reduced, and the requirements for improving the ecological environment will be higher, and the tough battle will be extended in depth and breadth.

Long-term vision to 2035: Increase the vision of 2035, propose the widespread formation of green production and lifestyles, stabilize and moderate carbon emissions after peaking, fundamentally improve the ecological environment, and basically achieve the goal of building a beautiful China.

Promoting carbon neutrality, green transition is the focus of the "14th Five-Year Plan"

Green and low-carbon is one of the key directions of the 14th Five-Year Plan, helping to achieve carbon neutrality.

From the supply side, promoting the use of cleaner energy and carbon capture technology (carbon capture) will help to achieve the general goal of carbon neutrality; while from the demand side, we believe that green and low-carbon transformation will is an essential component.

"Energy saving + emission reduction" realizes green and low-carbon transformation.

Energy saving: At present, my country's GDP still maintains a relatively stable growth. The proposal of the concept of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality means that the energy consumption per unit of GDP will drop significantly. Therefore, we believe that there will be a technology market space that will help reduce energy consumption and improve efficiency in the future. Sufficient, such as resource utilization, smart environmental protection, etc.

Emission reduction: In the past, carbon dioxide was not a pollutant, so the emission and monitoring of carbon dioxide were not perfect before. With the promotion of green and low carbon, we believe that it will help to promote the construction of carbon emission and carbon trading related systems, such as Carbon trading market and CCER.

Carbon trading + CCER, the only way to achieve carbon peak carbon neutrality

The carbon trading market is a necessary means to achieve green and low carbon. The carbon trading market can use the market mechanism to promote the reduction of carbon emissions, enhance the value of enterprises to reduce carbon emissions through the quota and trading system, and promote the green upgrade and transformation of enterprises. The CCER market can be linked with the quota market through the offset mechanism. The state will certify the voluntary emission reduction (CCER) for the corresponding projects that meet the standards. The emission control enterprises in the quota market can purchase the corresponding CCER offset emissions, which can currently be used to offset emissions. The proportion shall not exceed 5%.

Graph: Schematic diagram of carbon trading

0.1@>

Source: Ministry of Ecology and Environment, CICC Research

CCER is gradually approaching, and the market space is sufficient. According to the data of China Carbon Accounting Database, the carbon emission of the electricity and heat sector in 2018 was as high as 4510 Mt, accounting for about 47% of the total carbon emission. If the upper limit of the offset ratio of 5% is calculated, the corresponding CCER transaction demand is about 2.@ >2.5 billion tons. Considering that more energy-intensive enterprises (petrochemical, chemical, building materials, steel, non-ferrous, paper, electric power and civil aviation, etc.) will be gradually included in the future, we estimate that the demand for CCER is expected to reach 400 million tons in the future, which can actually absorb carbon emissions. Negative carbon technologies are more popular, such as forestry carbon sinks, carbon capture, and landfill gas power generation.

Environmental protection industry: Looking for high-quality technology providers and professional environmental protection enterprises with outstanding operational capabilities around sectors with high prosperity and strong growth certainty

Main line 1: Recycling is in line with the general direction of green and low-carbon development, and the leading competitive advantage is significant

Resource recycling Reprocessing and reusing waste available resources (such as steel, rubber, and plastics) will help ease the pressure of my country's growing resource demand, reduce production energy consumption, and contribute to carbon neutrality overall promotion of the policy. The metal hazardous waste recycling market has a broad market space and a clear business model. It is one of the preferred sectors:

Clear business model: The core of the enterprise is processing and manufacturing profits, and the profit model is stable.

Sufficient market space: We estimate that the future market space for the metal hazardous waste recycling industry will be about 150 billion yuan.

Small market concentration: The current market of the hazardous waste industry is relatively fragmented. From the perspective of the metal hazardous waste recycling sector, the market share of leading companies is only 1%-5%.

We are optimistic about future industries with technological advantages and strong economies of scale. It is recommended to pay attention to leading companies in the industry.

Main line 2: The penetration rate of landfill biogas power generation is improved enough, and the benefit of CCER elasticity is significant

The inclusion of CCER has brought about a significant increase in the profit per kilowatt hour. The carbon emission reduction brought by the landfill biogas project mainly comes from two aspects, 1)reducing the direct emissions of greenhouse gases such as biogas, and 2)reducing the carbon emission caused by electricity generation or heating through fossil fuels and other means. We calculate that the CCER transaction is expected to increase the profit of biogas power generation projects by 101.4%, and the landfill gas power generation business still has a large market space.

Graph: 2010-2019 China Landfill Number and Treatment Capacity

0.6@>

Source: Wind Information, CICC Research

Graph: 2015-2019 China's biogas power generation cumulative and newly installed capacity

0.7@>

Source: China Biomass Power Generation Industry Development Report, CICC Research

Main line three: carbon neutrality increases the demand for new energy sanitation, and sanitation is still expected to maintain a high degree of prosperity

New energy sanitation equipment is a long-term trend. The introduction of solid waste policies such as "garbage sorting" has driven the rapid increase in the demand for sanitation equipment. According to relevant association data, from 2016 to 2020, the penetration rate of new energy sanitation vehicles continued to be 1.5%-0.9@>5% In between, the proportion is still low. In 2020, in the "Recommended Catalogue of New Energy Special Vehicles" announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, sanitation vehicles accounted for a large proportion. We believe that in the future, benefiting from the country's continuous promotion of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the field of sanitation, there will be ample room for industry improvement in the future. We recommend paying attention to leading companies in sanitation equipment.

Graph: The penetration rate of new energy sanitation vehicles is low

光伏制作:看好上中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向游跌价趋缓倡议主动计划光伏板块拐点

Sources: Special Vehicle Branch of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, Huajing Industry Research Institute, Research Department of CICC

Chart: Sanitation vehicles accounted for a large proportion of the 13 batches of "Recommended Catalogues for New Energy Special Vehicles" announced in 2020

光伏制作:看好上中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向游跌价趋缓倡议主动计划光伏板块拐点

Source: Automobile Terminal, CICC Research

Main line 4: Smart water business has a high degree of prosperity, reducing costs and increasing efficiency to solve the shortcomings of the water industry

Smart water has alleviated the shortcomings of the water industry, and there is ample room for future growth. We believe that smart water affairs is expected to optimize the water affairs business process through the integrated management of water affairs, which is conducive to alleviating the current situation of insufficient water resources, severe water pollution and high leakage rate in my country. We believe that the estimated future smart water market space will exceed 300 billion yuan. According to forward-looking industry research data, the current market size is less than 20 billion yuan, and there is ample room for future improvement. It is recommended to pay attention to the first release of the bureau's smart water affairs, and it is expected to become the leading enterprise of smart water affairs IoT integrator in the future.

Chart: There is ample space in the smart water market

光伏制作:看好上中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向游跌价趋缓倡议主动计划光伏板块拐点

Source: CICC Research

Main line 5: Waste incineration is still a rigid demand of the government, and CCER may improve company profits

Waste incineration belongs to the government's rigid needs. Waste incineration has outstanding livelihood attributes, relatively rigid demand, and less economic impact, which is conducive to ensuring the stability of the profit model, and we expect that the waste incineration industry is still expected to maintain stable growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. Waste incineration can replace fossil fuel power generation or heating, so it can be included in CCER for trading. We estimate that CCER is expected to contribute about 11.1% of the profit of waste incineration projects, which will hedge the risk of subsidy decline to a certain extent. It is recommended to pay attention to waste incineration enterprises with strong project operation capabilities and intensive production capacity.

Graph: CCER's calculation of profit elasticity of waste incineration projects

光伏制作:看好上中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向游跌价趋缓倡议主动计划光伏板块拐点

Source: CICC Research

中国动力投资趋向,中国投资趋向,中国海内房地产投资趋向This article is selected from "CICC Securities", authors: Liu Jun, Jiang Xinhao, etc.; editor: Qin Zhizhou

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